“Uncertainty involves unknown possible outcomes and thus unknowable probabilities. Risk involves known possible outcomes and probabilities that we can estimate. Risk is not especially scary, because it can be managed … Uncertainty, on the other hand, is scary, because it is not manageable: We can’t measure the likelihood and impacts of the unknowable. … distinguish between what can and can’t be known right now”Arthur C Brooks, “Two Errors Our Minds Make When Trying to Grasp the Pandemic“, The Atlantic, 23 April 2020
Risk of failure, risk of success, uncertainty as to which we will achieve in our next painting. What can’t be known before we’ve gone some way with a painting is which it’ll be, we just have to ride along with it.